Progress Singapore Party Dr Tan Cheng Bock during a walkabout at Block 628 Ang Mo Kio Market, July 2, 2020. Photo: Ili Nadhirah Mansor/TODAY
This GE2020 is significant as all 93 elected seats in 31 constituencies are contested by opposition parties.
Can the opposition win GE2020?
Yes it’s possible. Here’s how.
How can the opposition become the new ruling party?
The graph below shows where each party is contesting in.
To win the majority in Parliament, the opposition needs 93 divided by 2 (rounded up to the next number) = 47 seats
But there aren’t any opposition parties big enough to contest 47 seats!
It doesn’t matter, as long as they form a coalition, just like how several opposition parties in Malaysia formed Pakatan Harapan and won a majority in the 2018 Malaysian general election.
All it takes is for the three largest parties in terms of seats contested (Workers’ Party, Progress Singapore Party, and Singapore Democratic Party) to combine forces.
WP + PSP + SDP
= 21 + 24 + 11
= 56 seats
Already these three parties are contesting 56 seats in different constituencies.
Even if they lose 9 seats, they will still have 47 seats, enough to knock off the incumbent PAP from being the ruling party since 1959.
WP, PSP and SDP, should they not wish to form a coalition with each other, can also consider combining forces with several other parties to hit 47 seats.
Win first, decide later on the coalition.
What about simply winning 1/3 of elected seats in Parliament?
Workers’ Party has highlighted that even if all 21 WP candidates are elected, the opposition still needs an additional 11 seats to get a total of 32 seats.
With 32 seats (more than 1/3 of 93 seats) the opposition can collectively prevent unilateral constitutional amendments.
Let’s see which party WP can work with for the remaining 11 seats:
PSP (24 seats)
SDP (11 seats)
Any 2 (NSP / PV / RP)
Even if WP doesn’t win all the 21 seats, remember there are 93 seats contested islandwide.
WP is not the only opposition party that has brought in new faces this time round. There are 9 other opposition parties (with PSP contesting even more seats than WP) and 1 independent who can contribute to the opposition alliance, should the voters swing against the PAP.
If the opposition is able to convince voters to give them a chance, bring some excitement into their lives, and rise up against the PAP, why stop at one-third?
Win first, combine forces later. If Malaysia did it with Pakatan Harapan, why not Singapore?